Last week, renowned freelance journalist Chris Horton visited Austin in an event hosted by the Strauss Center’s Asian Policy Program. Horton has written extensively on China-Taiwan-US relations and their context within international organizations such as the United Nations. He has also covered Taiwan’s domestic political culture and developments within the island nation. Horton has served at many prominent media companies, including the Asia Times, China Economic Review, and, most recently, Bloomberg News.
In his address at the Strauss Center last week, Horton sought to disprove the commonly propagated myth that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has a historical and recognized claim to the island of Taiwan. The idea has been pushed by the Chinese government since its formal inception in 1949, in the aftermath of the Chinese Civil War. Horton remarked that the years between 1945 and 1949 were the only 4 years in human history in which a Chinese government held recognized control over the whole island, during which the ROC occupied the island as unincorporated territory. He emphasized that Taiwanese history is fraught with violence, and that prior to the 20th century, the dominant population there were Austronesian-descended peoples, more closely related by blood to Samoans and Filipinos than Han Chinese people.
Horton’s remarks reflect on the heart of modern CCP propaganda, which nearly 1.5 billion Chinese citizens consume daily.
The statements by Horton come amid heightened tensions in the region as Chinese drones entered the South China Sea, performing decoy tests. The drones are capable of transmitting false signals that make them appear on radar as other aircraft, including a Belarusian cargo plane and a British Typhoon jet. China has conducted 23 of these tests since last August, with the most recent detection being this past week.
Analysts fear that the drones are exploiting Taiwan’s electronic defense systems in real time. Some have suggested that they represent a “rehearsal” for a potential invasion. When overlaid on a map of the island, the flight paths align with key strategic military targets that would need to be liquidated before formal military action, near Taipei in the north and along Taiwan’s southern coastline. Some trajectories have brought Chinese aircraft closer to American and Japanese bases in Okinawa and Ryukyu.
Military experts warn that the patterns resemble combat rehearsal rather than routine patrols of the region. The actions have alarmed Taiwanese officials and show that the Chinese army is prepared to use advanced deception tactics to achieve its aims in combat. China’s defense ministry has not released any official statements to Western media regarding the tests.
In addition, Japanese officials have announced a plan to deploy surface-to-air missiles on the island by 2031. It is the first time Tokyo has laid out a timeline for action since the project began in 2022. If successful, analysts warn that already tense Chinese-Japanese relations will spike. Taiwan remains a strategic chokepoint for the US and its allies in Asia.
